Same As Ever

By: Morgan Housel

Finished: Sometime in January probably.

What’s it about:  a book about things that never seem to change and using these ideas to make better predictions and decisions.

Takeaways:  Really good book.  But also one of those books that you go “wow that was so good.  I took away a lot.”

Then maybe also struggle to state what you took away.  Not that it wasn’t great and insightful, just that there was so many things of note, you may forget some of the points you even read.

A few of my takeaways:

1).  Patience is a skill that over the long term usually works (especially when it comes to investing).  

2).  It is almost impossible to predict the future, and anyone who ever tried basically failed.  In essence, no one predicted the Great Depression, even though there were plenty of warning signs.  Thus, the author states, “ I decided to read more history instead of predictions.  In turn, that made me more comfortable with the future.”

3).  There is a natural speed to everything.  Usually, when they go too fast they break (lives, companies, etc.) 

4).  People will always react to incentives.  That’s what leads to most behavior we find to be crazy and inexplicable.

5).  Lastly, people are very fallible.  We believe stories and not data.  People crave certainty.  They will hold onto scars of the past and never let go.  They’ll convince themselves someone knows what will happen in the future.  You could say that’s reason for concern, but I think the author is trying to articulate that understanding. This puts you in a better position to make decisions.  When you realize that many things are flawed, you can decide for yourself.  But also, “The first principal is not fool yourself. And you are the easiest to fool.”